Probabilities, not picks
Every outcome is expressed as a chance. The largest chance can still lose.
24 verified-schedule fixtures are listed across 2 competitions on Saturday, 26 September 2026. The highest single 1X2 probability is Stockport County win at 64.9%; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Probabilities are generated independently of bookmaker prices. Fair odds are the decimal inverse of the model probability and do not include a safety margin. 24 listed kick-off times are provisional.
| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30time provisional | Crawley Town vs BarnetEFL League Two | 20.0% | 22.8% | 57.2% | 0-110.9% | 0.99-1.83 | Away57.2% | 4.99 · 4.39 · 1.75 |
| 15:00time provisional | Bristol Rovers vs Exeter CityEFL League Two | 46.4% | 25.9% | 27.8% | 1-112.3% | 1.50-1.10 | Home46.4% | 2.16 · 3.87 · 3.60 |
| 15:00time provisional | Cheltenham Town vs ChesterfieldEFL League Two | 20.9% | 23.0% | 56.1% | 1-110.9% | 1.01-1.81 | Away56.1% | 4.80 · 4.34 · 1.78 |
| 15:00time provisional | Fleetwood Town vs RochdaleEFL League Two | 32.2% | 26.6% | 41.3% | 1-112.6% | 1.18-1.38 | Away41.3% | 3.11 · 3.77 · 2.42 |
| 15:00time provisional | Newport County vs Grimsby TownEFL League Two | 25.7% | 24.8% | 49.5% | 1-111.8% | 1.09-1.62 | Away49.5% | 3.90 · 4.03 · 2.02 |
| 15:00time provisional | Port Vale vs Northampton TownEFL League Two | 50.7% | 25.3% | 24.0% | 1-012.1% | 1.57-1.00 | Home50.7% | 1.97 · 3.94 · 4.17 |
| 15:00time provisional | Rotherham United vs Crewe AlexandraEFL League Two | 42.2% | 26.6% | 31.2% | 1-112.6% | 1.39-1.15 | Home42.2% | 2.37 · 3.76 · 3.21 |
| 15:00time provisional | Shrewsbury Town vs Colchester UnitedEFL League Two | 28.2% | 26.9% | 44.9% | 1-112.7% | 1.04-1.39 | Away44.9% | 3.55 · 3.71 · 2.23 |
| 15:00time provisional | Swindon Town vs Accrington StanleyEFL League Two | 57.1% | 22.8% | 20.1% | 1-010.9% | 1.83-0.99 | Home57.1% | 1.75 · 4.39 · 4.97 |
| 15:00time provisional | Tranmere Rovers vs WalsallEFL League Two | 31.7% | 26.3% | 42.0% | 1-112.5% | 1.19-1.41 | Away42.0% | 3.16 · 3.80 · 2.38 |
| 15:00time provisional | York City vs GillinghamEFL League Two | 63.1% | 21.6% | 15.3% | 1-012.7% | 1.90-0.81 | Home63.1% | 1.58 · 4.62 · 6.54 |
| 17:30time provisional | Oldham Athletic vs Salford CityEFL League Two | 37.1% | 27.0% | 35.9% | 1-112.8% | 1.27-1.24 | Home37.1% | 2.70 · 3.70 · 2.79 |
| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00time provisional | Bradford City vs BarnsleyEFL League One | 51.3% | 23.6% | 25.0% | 1-111.2% | 1.65-1.07 | Home51.3% | 1.95 · 4.23 · 3.99 |
| 15:00time provisional | Cambridge United vs AFC WimbledonEFL League One | 51.6% | 24.5% | 23.9% | 1-012.5% | 1.56-0.98 | Home51.6% | 1.94 · 4.09 · 4.18 |
| 15:00time provisional | Doncaster Rovers vs Oxford UnitedEFL League One | 37.1% | 25.4% | 37.5% | 1-112.1% | 1.30-1.31 | Away37.5% | 2.70 · 3.93 · 2.67 |
| 15:00time provisional | Huddersfield Town vs Luton TownEFL League One | 36.2% | 25.1% | 38.7% | 1-111.9% | 1.30-1.35 | Away38.7% | 2.76 · 3.98 · 2.59 |
| 15:00time provisional | Leicester City vs Wigan AthleticEFL League One | 50.2% | 24.7% | 25.1% | 1-012.3% | 1.53-1.00 | Home50.2% | 1.99 · 4.04 · 3.99 |
| 15:00time provisional | Mansfield Town vs Leyton OrientEFL League One | 57.2% | 22.4% | 20.4% | 1-011.6% | 1.78-0.96 | Home57.2% | 1.75 · 4.47 · 4.90 |
| 15:00time provisional | MK Dons vs BromleyEFL League One | 47.5% | 24.5% | 28.0% | 1-111.7% | 1.53-1.12 | Home47.5% | 2.11 · 4.08 · 3.57 |
| 15:00time provisional | Notts County vs BlackpoolEFL League One | 36.8% | 25.1% | 38.2% | 1-111.9% | 1.32-1.35 | Away38.2% | 2.72 · 3.99 · 2.62 |
| 15:00time provisional | Plymouth Argyle vs Burton AlbionEFL League One | 64.0% | 20.0% | 16.0% | 1-011.3% | 2.00-0.88 | Home64.0% | 1.56 · 4.99 · 6.27 |
| 15:00time provisional | Stevenage vs Sheffield WednesdayEFL League One | 47.2% | 25.7% | 27.0% | 1-012.6% | 1.43-1.01 | Home47.2% | 2.12 · 3.89 · 3.70 |
| 15:00time provisional | Stockport County vs Peterborough UnitedEFL League One | 64.9% | 19.3% | 15.8% | 2-010.9% | 2.09-0.92 | Home64.9% | 1.54 · 5.18 · 6.34 |
| 15:00time provisional | Wycombe Wanderers vs ReadingEFL League One | 48.7% | 24.2% | 27.1% | 1-111.5% | 1.58-1.11 | Home48.7% | 2.05 · 4.14 · 3.69 |
Every outcome is expressed as a chance. The largest chance can still lose.
Fixture status, model version and update date are published beside the board.
Bookmaker prices never change the core sporting forecast.
Model-draw and format-only UEFA pairings are excluded from daily listings.