Fulham vs Manchester United prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Manchester United win the strongest outcome at 40.3%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
FulhamFUL47 projected points
Manchester UnitedMUN58.6 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Fulham vs Man Utd scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
11.9%
8.8%
8.0%
6.8%
6.3%
Fulham 1.44 · Man Utd 1.59
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
29.3% to 42.3%
The Fulham home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
15 vs 5
Current mean projected league positions for Fulham and Man Utd.
Matchweek 5
Sunday, 20 September 2026 at 16:30 UK time
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.31 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.012 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.101 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.056 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Fulham vs Man Utd prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Fulham vs Manchester United?
Manchester United win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 40.3%. The draw is 25.9%.
What is the predicted score for Fulham vs Manchester United?
The most likely exact score is Fulham 1-1 Manchester United, with an estimated probability of 11.9%.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Manchester United?
The model gives both teams to score a 61.7% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 58.4% probability.
When is Fulham vs Manchester United?
Fulham vs Manchester United is scheduled for Sunday, 20 September 2026 at 16:30 UK time.