Newcastle United vs Hull City prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Newcastle United win the strongest outcome at 61.3%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
Newcastle UnitedNEW54.1 projected points
Hull CityHUL42.5 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Newcastle vs Hull scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
10.5%
10.1%
10.0%
9.0%
6.9%
Newcastle 2.06 · Hull 0.99
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
51.0% to 69.5%
The Newcastle home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
9 vs 17
Current mean projected league positions for Newcastle and Hull.
Matchweek 5
Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 15:00 UK time
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
+0.73 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.004 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.171 goal-rate signal
Recent results
-0.108 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Newcastle vs Hull prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Newcastle United vs Hull City?
Newcastle United win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 61.3%. The draw is 22.2%.
What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Hull City?
The most likely exact score is Newcastle United 1-1 Hull City, with an estimated probability of 10.5%.
Will both teams score in Newcastle United vs Hull City?
The model gives both teams to score a 55.5% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 58.6% probability.
When is Newcastle United vs Hull City?
Newcastle United vs Hull City is scheduled for Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 15:00 UK time.