Leeds United vs Crystal Palace prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Leeds United win the strongest outcome at 52.7%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
Leeds UnitedLEE51.8 projected points
Crystal PalaceCRY40.4 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Leeds vs Crystal Palace scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
11.9%
9.8%
9.3%
9.0%
6.6%
Leeds 1.78 · Crystal Palace 1.09
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
46.7% to 58.3%
The Leeds home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
10 vs 18
Current mean projected league positions for Leeds and Crystal Palace.
Matchweek 5
Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 15:00 UK time
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.11 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
+0.055 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
+0.098 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.156 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Leeds vs Crystal Palace prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Leeds United vs Crystal Palace?
Leeds United win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 52.7%. The draw is 25.1%.
What is the predicted score for Leeds United vs Crystal Palace?
The most likely exact score is Leeds United 1-1 Crystal Palace, with an estimated probability of 11.9%.
Will both teams score in Leeds United vs Crystal Palace?
The model gives both teams to score a 55.9% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 54.6% probability.
When is Leeds United vs Crystal Palace?
Leeds United vs Crystal Palace is scheduled for Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 15:00 UK time.