Probabilities, not picks
Every outcome is expressed as a chance. The largest chance can still lose.
Football predictions on Saturday, 10 October 2026
50 verified-schedule fixtures are listed across 5 competitions on Saturday, 10 October 2026. The highest single 1X2 probability is Inter win at 69.0%; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
VERIFIED FIXTURES50
COMPETITIONS5
CONFIRMED 3PM4
MODEL PATHS100,000
CONFIRMED SATURDAY 3PM KICK-OFFS
The 3pm probability board
Only fixtures with an explicitly confirmed 15:00 UK kick-off are included here. Provisional EFL times remain in the competition sections below and are clearly labelled.
| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Aston Villa vs BrentfordPremier League | 47.0% | 25.5% | 27.6% | 1-111.9% | 1.72-1.27 | Home47.0% | 2.13 · 3.93 · 3.63 |
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Chelsea vs AFC BournemouthPremier League | 54.8% | 23.7% | 21.5% | 1-111.0% | 1.93-1.15 | Home54.8% | 1.82 · 4.22 · 4.65 |
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Ipswich Town vs FulhamPremier League | 46.2% | 24.7% | 29.1% | 1-111.2% | 1.79-1.39 | Home46.2% | 2.17 · 4.05 · 3.43 |
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove AlbionPremier League | 34.4% | 26.3% | 39.3% | 1-112.3% | 1.42-1.53 | Away39.3% | 2.90 · 3.80 · 2.55 |
EVERY SUPPORTED COMPETITION
Saturday, 10 October 2026 football predictions
Probabilities are generated independently of bookmaker prices. Fair odds are the decimal inverse of the model probability and do not include a safety margin. 44 listed kick-off times are provisional.
Serie A
Full competition forecast →| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00time provisional | Atalanta vs VeneziaSerie A | 56.3% | 23.6% | 20.1% | 1-011.3% | 1.79-0.97 | Home56.3% | 1.78 · 4.24 · 4.97 |
| 01:00time provisional | Cagliari vs JuventusSerie A | 19.9% | 24.6% | 55.5% | 0-112.6% | 0.90-1.68 | Away55.5% | 5.02 · 4.06 · 1.80 |
| 01:00time provisional | Como vs RomaSerie A | 36.6% | 27.4% | 36.0% | 1-113.0% | 1.27-1.25 | Home36.6% | 2.73 · 3.65 · 2.78 |
| 01:00time provisional | Genoa vs FiorentinaSerie A | 30.2% | 27.3% | 42.5% | 1-113.0% | 1.11-1.37 | Away42.5% | 3.32 · 3.66 · 2.35 |
| 01:00time provisional | Inter vs ParmaSerie A | 69.0% | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2-012.6% | 2.14-0.76 | Home69.0% | 1.45 · 5.22 · 8.43 |
| 01:00time provisional | Lazio vs MonzaSerie A | 52.5% | 25.2% | 22.3% | 1-012.0% | 1.63-0.97 | Home52.5% | 1.90 · 3.97 · 4.48 |
| 01:00time provisional | Lecce vs BolognaSerie A | 25.4% | 27.1% | 47.5% | 0-112.8% | 0.97-1.44 | Away47.5% | 3.94 · 3.68 · 2.11 |
| 01:00time provisional | Napoli vs FrosinoneSerie A | 62.1% | 22.0% | 15.9% | 1-012.1% | 1.91-0.85 | Home62.1% | 1.61 · 4.54 · 6.29 |
| 01:00time provisional | Sassuolo vs MilanSerie A | 29.6% | 25.7% | 44.7% | 1-112.2% | 1.20-1.53 | Away44.7% | 3.38 · 3.89 · 2.24 |
| 01:00time provisional | Torino vs UdineseSerie A | 37.1% | 27.8% | 35.1% | 1-113.2% | 1.25-1.20 | Home37.1% | 2.69 · 3.60 · 2.85 |
EFL Championship
Full competition forecast →| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30time provisional | Charlton Athletic vs Bristol CityEFL Championship | 38.0% | 27.1% | 34.9% | 1-112.9% | 1.27-1.21 | Home38.0% | 2.63 · 3.69 · 2.87 |
| 12:30time provisional | Swansea City vs Norwich CityEFL Championship | 39.0% | 26.2% | 34.8% | 1-112.5% | 1.36-1.26 | Home39.0% | 2.56 · 3.82 · 2.88 |
| 12:30time provisional | West Bromwich Albion vs Birmingham CityEFL Championship | 40.7% | 27.3% | 32.0% | 1-112.9% | 1.30-1.12 | Home40.7% | 2.46 · 3.66 · 3.12 |
| 15:00time provisional | Blackburn Rovers vs Cardiff CityEFL Championship | 41.7% | 26.9% | 31.4% | 1-112.8% | 1.35-1.13 | Home41.7% | 2.40 · 3.72 · 3.18 |
| 15:00time provisional | Bolton Wanderers vs Stoke CityEFL Championship | 50.9% | 25.4% | 23.7% | 1-012.3% | 1.56-0.98 | Home50.9% | 1.96 · 3.94 · 4.21 |
| 15:00time provisional | Derby County vs WrexhamEFL Championship | 39.7% | 26.5% | 33.9% | 1-112.6% | 1.35-1.22 | Home39.7% | 2.52 · 3.78 · 2.95 |
| 15:00time provisional | Middlesbrough vs Wolverhampton WanderersEFL Championship | 49.9% | 25.2% | 24.9% | 1-112.0% | 1.57-1.03 | Home49.9% | 2.00 · 3.97 · 4.02 |
| 15:00time provisional | Preston North End vs MillwallEFL Championship | 25.7% | 26.5% | 47.8% | 0-112.7% | 0.99-1.45 | Away47.8% | 3.89 · 3.77 · 2.09 |
| 15:00time provisional | Sheffield United vs Lincoln CityEFL Championship | 42.4% | 26.3% | 31.3% | 1-112.5% | 1.41-1.17 | Home42.4% | 2.36 · 3.80 · 3.20 |
| 15:00time provisional | Watford vs BurnleyEFL Championship | 31.1% | 26.7% | 42.2% | 1-112.7% | 1.13-1.37 | Away42.2% | 3.22 · 3.74 · 2.37 |
EFL League One
Full competition forecast →| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30time provisional | Notts County vs Oxford UnitedEFL League One | 35.8% | 25.2% | 38.9% | 1-112.0% | 1.29-1.35 | Away38.9% | 2.79 · 3.97 · 2.57 |
| 12:30time provisional | Plymouth Argyle vs AFC WimbledonEFL League One | 68.0% | 18.6% | 13.5% | 2-012.0% | 2.12-0.82 | Home68.0% | 1.47 · 5.39 · 7.43 |
| 15:00time provisional | Bradford City vs Leyton OrientEFL League One | 51.4% | 24.4% | 24.2% | 1-012.2% | 1.57-0.99 | Home51.4% | 1.95 · 4.10 · 4.13 |
| 15:00time provisional | Cambridge United vs BlackpoolEFL League One | 36.5% | 25.7% | 37.8% | 1-112.2% | 1.26-1.29 | Away37.8% | 2.74 · 3.89 · 2.65 |
| 15:00time provisional | Doncaster Rovers vs Burton AlbionEFL League One | 49.3% | 24.5% | 26.2% | 1-111.7% | 1.55-1.06 | Home49.3% | 2.03 · 4.08 · 3.82 |
| 15:00time provisional | Huddersfield Town vs Sheffield WednesdayEFL League One | 48.5% | 24.3% | 27.2% | 1-111.5% | 1.57-1.11 | Home48.5% | 2.06 · 4.12 · 3.67 |
| 15:00time provisional | Leicester City vs Peterborough UnitedEFL League One | 57.7% | 21.6% | 20.7% | 1-010.4% | 1.88-1.03 | Home57.7% | 1.73 · 4.64 · 4.82 |
| 15:00time provisional | Mansfield Town vs BromleyEFL League One | 55.0% | 23.0% | 22.1% | 1-011.5% | 1.72-1.00 | Home55.0% | 1.82 · 4.35 · 4.53 |
| 15:00time provisional | MK Dons vs ReadingEFL League One | 46.9% | 24.2% | 28.8% | 1-111.5% | 1.56-1.16 | Home46.9% | 2.13 · 4.12 · 3.47 |
| 15:00time provisional | Stevenage vs Wigan AthleticEFL League One | 47.0% | 26.6% | 26.4% | 1-013.7% | 1.36-0.95 | Home47.0% | 2.13 · 3.76 · 3.79 |
| 15:00time provisional | Stockport County vs BarnsleyEFL League One | 60.6% | 20.8% | 18.6% | 1-010.5% | 1.95-0.98 | Home60.6% | 1.65 · 4.81 · 5.37 |
| 15:00time provisional | Wycombe Wanderers vs Luton TownEFL League One | 36.4% | 25.4% | 38.2% | 1-112.1% | 1.29-1.33 | Away38.2% | 2.75 · 3.94 · 2.62 |
EFL League Two
Full competition forecast →| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30time provisional | Oldham Athletic vs Accrington StanleyEFL League Two | 59.8% | 22.8% | 17.3% | 1-012.7% | 1.80-0.85 | Home59.8% | 1.67 · 4.38 · 5.77 |
| 12:30time provisional | Swindon Town vs Crewe AlexandraEFL League Two | 43.6% | 25.6% | 30.8% | 1-112.2% | 1.49-1.21 | Home43.6% | 2.29 · 3.90 · 3.25 |
| 15:00time provisional | Bristol Rovers vs BarnetEFL League Two | 36.4% | 26.1% | 37.5% | 1-112.4% | 1.32-1.34 | Away37.5% | 2.75 · 3.83 · 2.67 |
| 15:00time provisional | Cheltenham Town vs Salford CityEFL League Two | 24.7% | 24.7% | 50.6% | 1-111.8% | 1.06-1.63 | Away50.6% | 4.05 · 4.04 · 1.98 |
| 15:00time provisional | Crawley Town vs ChesterfieldEFL League Two | 20.2% | 22.7% | 57.2% | 1-110.7% | 1.00-1.85 | Away57.2% | 4.96 · 4.41 · 1.75 |
| 15:00time provisional | Fleetwood Town vs WalsallEFL League Two | 43.1% | 26.2% | 30.7% | 1-112.5% | 1.43-1.16 | Home43.1% | 2.32 · 3.81 · 3.26 |
| 15:00time provisional | Newport County vs Colchester UnitedEFL League Two | 32.2% | 26.5% | 41.3% | 1-112.6% | 1.18-1.38 | Away41.3% | 3.11 · 3.77 · 2.42 |
| 15:00time provisional | Port Vale vs Grimsby TownEFL League Two | 36.8% | 26.7% | 36.5% | 1-112.7% | 1.28-1.28 | Home36.8% | 2.72 · 3.75 · 2.74 |
| 15:00time provisional | Rotherham United vs GillinghamEFL League Two | 51.2% | 25.6% | 23.2% | 1-012.7% | 1.55-0.95 | Home51.2% | 1.95 · 3.90 · 4.32 |
| 15:00time provisional | Shrewsbury Town vs Exeter CityEFL League Two | 26.3% | 26.3% | 47.4% | 1-112.5% | 1.02-1.47 | Away47.4% | 3.80 · 3.81 · 2.11 |
| 15:00time provisional | Tranmere Rovers vs RochdaleEFL League Two | 22.2% | 24.4% | 53.4% | 0-111.8% | 0.98-1.67 | Away53.4% | 4.50 · 4.10 · 1.87 |
| 15:00time provisional | York City vs Northampton TownEFL League Two | 58.4% | 22.9% | 18.8% | 1-011.8% | 1.81-0.92 | Home58.4% | 1.71 · 4.38 · 5.33 |
Premier League
Full competition forecast →| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30confirmed schedule | Arsenal vs Leeds UnitedPremier League | 68.0% | 20.1% | 11.9% | 2-012.0% | 2.18-0.81 | Home68.0% | 1.47 · 4.96 · 8.40 |
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Aston Villa vs BrentfordPremier League | 47.0% | 25.5% | 27.6% | 1-111.9% | 1.72-1.27 | Home47.0% | 2.13 · 3.93 · 3.63 |
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Chelsea vs AFC BournemouthPremier League | 54.8% | 23.7% | 21.5% | 1-111.0% | 1.93-1.15 | Home54.8% | 1.82 · 4.22 · 4.65 |
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Ipswich Town vs FulhamPremier League | 46.2% | 24.7% | 29.1% | 1-111.2% | 1.79-1.39 | Home46.2% | 2.17 · 4.05 · 3.43 |
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove AlbionPremier League | 34.4% | 26.3% | 39.3% | 1-112.3% | 1.42-1.53 | Away39.3% | 2.90 · 3.80 · 2.55 |
| 17:30confirmed schedule | Manchester United vs Tottenham HotspurPremier League | 58.7% | 21.9% | 19.3% | 1-19.9% | 2.14-1.17 | Home58.7% | 1.70 · 4.56 · 5.17 |
Dated evidence
Fixture status, model version and update date are published beside the board.
No odds in the model
Bookmaker prices never change the core sporting forecast.
No synthetic fixtures
Model-draw and format-only UEFA pairings are excluded from daily listings.