Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Chelsea win the strongest outcome at 54.8%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
ChelseaCHE64.1 projected points
AFC BournemouthBOU51.4 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Chelsea vs Bournemouth scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
11.0%
9.9%
8.6%
8.1%
6.3%
Chelsea 1.93 · Bournemouth 1.15
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
43.1% to 62.0%
The Chelsea home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
3 vs 11
Current mean projected league positions for Chelsea and Bournemouth.
Matchweek 6
Saturday, 10 October 2026 at 15:00 UK time
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
+0.2 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.006 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.001 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.055 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Chelsea vs Bournemouth prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth?
Chelsea win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 54.8%. The draw is 23.7%.
What is the predicted score for Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth?
The most likely exact score is Chelsea 1-1 AFC Bournemouth, with an estimated probability of 11.0%.
Will both teams score in Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth?
The model gives both teams to score a 59.1% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 59.3% probability.
When is Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth?
Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth is scheduled for Saturday, 10 October 2026 at 15:00 UK time.