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THE PROBABILITY DESK · FRIDAY, 9 OCTOBER 2026

Football predictions on Friday, 9 October 2026

19 verified-schedule fixtures are listed across 3 competitions on Friday, 9 October 2026. The highest single 1X2 probability is LOSC Lille win at 77.7%; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.

VERIFIED FIXTURES19
COMPETITIONS3
CONFIRMED 3PM0
MODEL PATHS100,000
EVERY SUPPORTED COMPETITION

Friday, 9 October 2026 football predictions

Probabilities are generated independently of bookmaker prices. Fair odds are the decimal inverse of the model probability and do not include a safety margin. 19 listed kick-off times are provisional.

Kick-offFixtureHomeDrawAwayLikely scorexGStrongestFair odds
01:00time provisional1. FC Köln vs Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga33.2%25.2%41.6%1-111.5%1.45-1.64Away41.6%3.01 · 3.97 · 2.40
01:00time provisional1. FC Union Berlin vs SV ElversbergBundesliga45.0%25.1%29.9%1-111.6%1.69-1.34Home45.0%2.22 · 3.98 · 3.35
01:00time provisional1. FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 LeverkusenBundesliga29.1%24.6%46.3%1-111.2%1.35-1.76Away46.3%3.44 · 4.06 · 2.16
01:00time provisionalBorussia Dortmund vs SV Werder BremenBundesliga76.0%14.8%9.2%2-09.6%2.80-0.90Home76.0%1.32 · 6.75 · 10.86
01:00time provisionalFC Augsburg vs FC Bayern MünchenBundesliga14.7%19.0%66.3%1-29.5%1.05-2.40Away66.3%6.82 · 5.26 · 1.51
01:00time provisionalRB Leipzig vs Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga57.9%21.6%20.5%1-19.6%2.16-1.21Home57.9%1.73 · 4.63 · 4.89
01:00time provisionalSC Paderborn 07 vs VfB StuttgartBundesliga23.4%22.5%54.0%1-19.9%1.30-2.06Away54.0%4.27 · 4.44 · 1.85
01:00time provisionalSport-Club Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04Bundesliga50.1%23.7%26.2%1-110.6%1.90-1.32Home50.1%2.00 · 4.22 · 3.81
01:00time provisionalTSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SVBundesliga48.5%23.5%28.0%1-110.2%1.92-1.42Home48.5%2.06 · 4.26 · 3.57
Kick-offFixtureHomeDrawAwayLikely scorexGStrongestFair odds
20:00time provisionalWest Ham United vs Queens Park RangersEFL Championship64.2%20.8%15.0%1-012.0%1.97-0.83Home64.2%1.56 · 4.80 · 6.67
Kick-offFixtureHomeDrawAwayLikely scorexGStrongestFair odds
23:00time provisionalAS Monaco vs Toulouse FCLigue 155.1%21.9%23.0%1-110.2%1.87-1.13Home55.1%1.82 · 4.57 · 4.34
23:00time provisionalEstac Troyes vs Olympique de MarseilleLigue 126.1%22.7%51.2%1-110.6%1.20-1.77Away51.2%3.83 · 4.40 · 1.95
23:00time provisionalFC Lorient vs Paris FCLigue 136.3%24.2%39.5%1-111.3%1.40-1.48Away39.5%2.76 · 4.14 · 2.53
23:00time provisionalLOSC Lille vs Havre Athletic ClubLigue 177.7%14.0%8.2%2-012.3%2.58-0.73Home77.7%1.29 · 7.13 · 12.12
23:00time provisionalOGC Nice vs RC Strasbourg AlsaceLigue 132.8%24.5%42.7%1-111.6%1.29-1.50Away42.7%3.05 · 4.09 · 2.34
23:00time provisionalParis Saint-Germain vs Le Mans FCLigue 177.0%14.1%8.9%2-011.3%2.63-0.79Home77.0%1.30 · 7.10 · 11.20
23:00time provisionalRC Lens vs Olympique LyonnaisLigue 149.7%23.5%26.8%1-111.1%1.68-1.17Home49.7%2.01 · 4.26 · 3.73
23:00time provisionalStade Brestois 29 vs Angers SCOLigue 152.4%23.3%24.2%1-111.1%1.70-1.08Home52.4%1.91 · 4.29 · 4.12
23:00time provisionalStade Rennais FC vs AJ AuxerreLigue 152.4%22.7%24.9%1-110.7%1.77-1.15Home52.4%1.91 · 4.40 · 4.02
DIRECT ANSWER

Probabilities, not picks

Every outcome is expressed as a chance. The largest chance can still lose.

FRESHNESS

Dated evidence

Fixture status, model version and update date are published beside the board.

SEPARATION

No odds in the model

Bookmaker prices never change the core sporting forecast.

PROVENANCE

No synthetic fixtures

Model-draw and format-only UEFA pairings are excluded from daily listings.