Probabilities, not picks
Every outcome is expressed as a chance. The largest chance can still lose.
19 verified-schedule fixtures are listed across 3 competitions on Friday, 9 October 2026. The highest single 1X2 probability is LOSC Lille win at 77.7%; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Probabilities are generated independently of bookmaker prices. Fair odds are the decimal inverse of the model probability and do not include a safety margin. 19 listed kick-off times are provisional.
| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00time provisional | 1. FC Köln vs Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga | 33.2% | 25.2% | 41.6% | 1-111.5% | 1.45-1.64 | Away41.6% | 3.01 · 3.97 · 2.40 |
| 01:00time provisional | 1. FC Union Berlin vs SV ElversbergBundesliga | 45.0% | 25.1% | 29.9% | 1-111.6% | 1.69-1.34 | Home45.0% | 2.22 · 3.98 · 3.35 |
| 01:00time provisional | 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 LeverkusenBundesliga | 29.1% | 24.6% | 46.3% | 1-111.2% | 1.35-1.76 | Away46.3% | 3.44 · 4.06 · 2.16 |
| 01:00time provisional | Borussia Dortmund vs SV Werder BremenBundesliga | 76.0% | 14.8% | 9.2% | 2-09.6% | 2.80-0.90 | Home76.0% | 1.32 · 6.75 · 10.86 |
| 01:00time provisional | FC Augsburg vs FC Bayern MünchenBundesliga | 14.7% | 19.0% | 66.3% | 1-29.5% | 1.05-2.40 | Away66.3% | 6.82 · 5.26 · 1.51 |
| 01:00time provisional | RB Leipzig vs Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga | 57.9% | 21.6% | 20.5% | 1-19.6% | 2.16-1.21 | Home57.9% | 1.73 · 4.63 · 4.89 |
| 01:00time provisional | SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB StuttgartBundesliga | 23.4% | 22.5% | 54.0% | 1-19.9% | 1.30-2.06 | Away54.0% | 4.27 · 4.44 · 1.85 |
| 01:00time provisional | Sport-Club Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04Bundesliga | 50.1% | 23.7% | 26.2% | 1-110.6% | 1.90-1.32 | Home50.1% | 2.00 · 4.22 · 3.81 |
| 01:00time provisional | TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SVBundesliga | 48.5% | 23.5% | 28.0% | 1-110.2% | 1.92-1.42 | Home48.5% | 2.06 · 4.26 · 3.57 |
| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20:00time provisional | West Ham United vs Queens Park RangersEFL Championship | 64.2% | 20.8% | 15.0% | 1-012.0% | 1.97-0.83 | Home64.2% | 1.56 · 4.80 · 6.67 |
| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:00time provisional | AS Monaco vs Toulouse FCLigue 1 | 55.1% | 21.9% | 23.0% | 1-110.2% | 1.87-1.13 | Home55.1% | 1.82 · 4.57 · 4.34 |
| 23:00time provisional | Estac Troyes vs Olympique de MarseilleLigue 1 | 26.1% | 22.7% | 51.2% | 1-110.6% | 1.20-1.77 | Away51.2% | 3.83 · 4.40 · 1.95 |
| 23:00time provisional | FC Lorient vs Paris FCLigue 1 | 36.3% | 24.2% | 39.5% | 1-111.3% | 1.40-1.48 | Away39.5% | 2.76 · 4.14 · 2.53 |
| 23:00time provisional | LOSC Lille vs Havre Athletic ClubLigue 1 | 77.7% | 14.0% | 8.2% | 2-012.3% | 2.58-0.73 | Home77.7% | 1.29 · 7.13 · 12.12 |
| 23:00time provisional | OGC Nice vs RC Strasbourg AlsaceLigue 1 | 32.8% | 24.5% | 42.7% | 1-111.6% | 1.29-1.50 | Away42.7% | 3.05 · 4.09 · 2.34 |
| 23:00time provisional | Paris Saint-Germain vs Le Mans FCLigue 1 | 77.0% | 14.1% | 8.9% | 2-011.3% | 2.63-0.79 | Home77.0% | 1.30 · 7.10 · 11.20 |
| 23:00time provisional | RC Lens vs Olympique LyonnaisLigue 1 | 49.7% | 23.5% | 26.8% | 1-111.1% | 1.68-1.17 | Home49.7% | 2.01 · 4.26 · 3.73 |
| 23:00time provisional | Stade Brestois 29 vs Angers SCOLigue 1 | 52.4% | 23.3% | 24.2% | 1-111.1% | 1.70-1.08 | Home52.4% | 1.91 · 4.29 · 4.12 |
| 23:00time provisional | Stade Rennais FC vs AJ AuxerreLigue 1 | 52.4% | 22.7% | 24.9% | 1-110.7% | 1.77-1.15 | Home52.4% | 1.91 · 4.40 · 4.02 |
Every outcome is expressed as a chance. The largest chance can still lose.
Fixture status, model version and update date are published beside the board.
Bookmaker prices never change the core sporting forecast.
Model-draw and format-only UEFA pairings are excluded from daily listings.