Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Brighton & Hove Albion win the strongest outcome at 39.3%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
SunderlandSUN38.8 projected points
Brighton & Hove AlbionBHA55.2 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Sunderland vs Brighton scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
12.3%
8.7%
8.1%
7.1%
6.5%
Sunderland 1.42 · Brighton 1.53
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
29.1% to 39.3%
The Sunderland home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
19 vs 7
Current mean projected league positions for Sunderland and Brighton.
Matchweek 6
Saturday, 10 October 2026 at 15:00 UK time
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.28 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
+0.031 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.001 goal-rate signal
Recent results
-0.12 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Sunderland vs Brighton prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
Brighton & Hove Albion win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 39.3%. The draw is 26.3%.
What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
The most likely exact score is Sunderland 1-1 Brighton & Hove Albion, with an estimated probability of 12.3%.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
The model gives both teams to score a 60.4% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 56.6% probability.
When is Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion is scheduled for Saturday, 10 October 2026 at 15:00 UK time.