Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Tottenham Hotspur win the strongest outcome at 44.0%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
Tottenham HotspurTOT49.8 projected points
Newcastle UnitedNEW54.1 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Tottenham vs Newcastle scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
10.5%
8.9%
7.5%
6.8%
5.8%
Tottenham 1.83 · Newcastle 1.54
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
36.9% to 52.1%
The Tottenham home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
14 vs 9
Current mean projected league positions for Tottenham and Newcastle.
Matchweek 2
Saturday, 29 August 2026 at 17:30 UK time
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.18 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
+0.018 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
+0.15 goal-rate signal
Recent results
-0.09 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Tottenham vs Newcastle prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United?
Tottenham Hotspur win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 44.0%. The draw is 24.1%.
What is the predicted score for Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United?
The most likely exact score is Tottenham Hotspur 1-1 Newcastle United, with an estimated probability of 10.5%.
Will both teams score in Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United?
The model gives both teams to score a 66.6% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 65.3% probability.
When is Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United?
Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United is scheduled for Saturday, 29 August 2026 at 17:30 UK time.