Sunderland vs Newcastle United prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Newcastle United win the strongest outcome at 40.7%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
SunderlandSUN38.8 projected points
Newcastle UnitedNEW54.1 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Sunderland vs Newcastle scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
12.0%
8.8%
7.9%
7.0%
6.3%
Sunderland 1.42 · Newcastle 1.59
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
28.4% to 38.4%
The Sunderland home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
19 vs 9
Current mean projected league positions for Sunderland and Newcastle.
Matchweek 34
Saturday, 1 May 2027, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.45 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
+0.02 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
+0.032 goal-rate signal
Recent results
-0.009 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Sunderland vs Newcastle prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Sunderland vs Newcastle United?
Newcastle United win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 40.7%. The draw is 26.0%.
What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs Newcastle United?
The most likely exact score is Sunderland 1-1 Newcastle United, with an estimated probability of 12.0%.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Newcastle United?
The model gives both teams to score a 61.2% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 57.8% probability.
When is Sunderland vs Newcastle United?
Sunderland vs Newcastle United is scheduled for Saturday, 1 May 2027, time provisional.