Sunderland vs Leeds United prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Sunderland win the strongest outcome at 36.3%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
SunderlandSUN38.8 projected points
Leeds UnitedLEE51.8 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Sunderland vs Leeds scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
13.1%
8.3%
8.3%
7.9%
7.8%
Sunderland 1.37 · Leeds 1.37
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
31.5% to 41.3%
The Sunderland home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
19 vs 10
Current mean projected league positions for Sunderland and Leeds.
Matchweek 8
Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 16:30 UK time
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.12 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.008 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.105 goal-rate signal
Recent results
-0.062 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Sunderland vs Leeds prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Sunderland vs Leeds United?
Sunderland win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 36.3%. The draw is 27.5%.
What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs Leeds United?
The most likely exact score is Sunderland 1-1 Leeds United, with an estimated probability of 13.1%.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Leeds United?
The model gives both teams to score a 56.7% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 51.7% probability.
When is Sunderland vs Leeds United?
Sunderland vs Leeds United is scheduled for Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 16:30 UK time.