Sunderland vs Leeds United prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Leeds United win the strongest outcome at 36.8%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
SunderlandSUN37.1 projected points
Leeds UnitedLEE50.9 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Sunderland vs Leeds scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
13.0%
8.4%
8.3%
7.8%
7.7%
Sunderland 1.37 · Leeds 1.39
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
32.2% to 39.5%
The Sunderland home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
20 vs 9
Current mean projected league positions for Sunderland and Leeds.
Matchweek 8
Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 16:30 UK time
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.12 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.008 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.071 goal-rate signal
Recent results
-0.112 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Sunderland vs Leeds prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Sunderland vs Leeds United?
Leeds United win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 36.8%. The draw is 27.4%.
What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs Leeds United?
The most likely exact score is Sunderland 1-1 Leeds United, with an estimated probability of 13.0%.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Leeds United?
The model gives both teams to score a 57.1% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 52.3% probability.
When is Sunderland vs Leeds United?
Sunderland vs Leeds United is scheduled for Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 16:30 UK time.
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