Sunderland vs Chelsea prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Chelsea win the strongest outcome at 49.2%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
SunderlandSUN38.8 projected points
ChelseaCHE64.1 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Sunderland vs Chelsea scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
11.5%
9.6%
7.6%
7.6%
6.7%
Sunderland 1.26 · Chelsea 1.80
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
21.3% to 36.4%
The Sunderland home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
19 vs 3
Current mean projected league positions for Sunderland and Chelsea.
Matchweek 10
Saturday, 7 November 2026, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.58 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
+0.033 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.061 goal-rate signal
Recent results
-0.043 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Sunderland vs Chelsea prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Sunderland vs Chelsea?
Chelsea win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 49.2%. The draw is 24.8%.
What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs Chelsea?
The most likely exact score is Sunderland 1-1 Chelsea, with an estimated probability of 11.5%.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Chelsea?
The model gives both teams to score a 60.6% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 59.0% probability.
When is Sunderland vs Chelsea?
Sunderland vs Chelsea is scheduled for Saturday, 7 November 2026, time provisional.