Sunderland vs Aston Villa prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Aston Villa win the strongest outcome at 42.4%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
SunderlandSUN38.8 projected points
Aston VillaAVL55 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Sunderland vs Aston Villa scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
12.2%
9.0%
7.7%
7.4%
6.6%
Sunderland 1.36 · Aston Villa 1.61
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
26.4% to 38.1%
The Sunderland home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
19 vs 8
Current mean projected league positions for Sunderland and Aston Villa.
Matchweek 24
Saturday, 6 February 2027, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.49 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.016 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.052 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.096 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Sunderland vs Aston Villa prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Sunderland vs Aston Villa?
Aston Villa win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 42.4%. The draw is 26.1%.
What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs Aston Villa?
The most likely exact score is Sunderland 1-1 Aston Villa, with an estimated probability of 12.2%.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Aston Villa?
The model gives both teams to score a 60.3% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 56.9% probability.
When is Sunderland vs Aston Villa?
Sunderland vs Aston Villa is scheduled for Saturday, 6 February 2027, time provisional.