Sunderland vs AFC Bournemouth prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes AFC Bournemouth win the strongest outcome at 40.2%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
SunderlandSUN38.8 projected points
AFC BournemouthBOU51.4 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Sunderland vs Bournemouth scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
12.5%
8.8%
7.9%
7.5%
6.6%
Sunderland 1.37 · Bournemouth 1.53
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
28.3% to 38.2%
The Sunderland home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
19 vs 11
Current mean projected league positions for Sunderland and Bournemouth.
Matchweek 36
Saturday, 15 May 2027, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.38 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
+0.027 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.062 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.013 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Sunderland vs Bournemouth prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Sunderland vs AFC Bournemouth?
AFC Bournemouth win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 40.2%. The draw is 26.6%.
What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs AFC Bournemouth?
The most likely exact score is Sunderland 1-1 AFC Bournemouth, with an estimated probability of 12.5%.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs AFC Bournemouth?
The model gives both teams to score a 59.3% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 55.3% probability.
When is Sunderland vs AFC Bournemouth?
Sunderland vs AFC Bournemouth is scheduled for Saturday, 15 May 2027, time provisional.