Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Nottingham Forest win the strongest outcome at 41.7%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
Nottingham ForestNFO49.9 projected points
Aston VillaAVL55 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Nott'm Forest vs Aston Villa scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
12.8%
9.0%
8.2%
7.6%
7.0%
Nott'm Forest 1.52 · Aston Villa 1.29
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
35.7% to 47.9%
The Nott'm Forest home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
13 vs 8
Current mean projected league positions for Nott'm Forest and Aston Villa.
Matchweek 30
Saturday, 20 March 2027, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.22 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.031 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
+0.032 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.107 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Nott'm Forest vs Aston Villa prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa?
Nottingham Forest win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 41.7%. The draw is 27.0%.
What is the predicted score for Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa?
The most likely exact score is Nottingham Forest 1-1 Aston Villa, with an estimated probability of 12.8%.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa?
The model gives both teams to score a 57.5% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 53.1% probability.
When is Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa?
Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa is scheduled for Saturday, 20 March 2027, time provisional.