Newcastle United vs Nottingham Forest prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Newcastle United win the strongest outcome at 47.9%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
Newcastle UnitedNEW50.5 projected points
Nottingham ForestNFO45.8 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Newcastle vs Nott'm Forest scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
12.3%
9.5%
8.6%
8.0%
6.7%
Newcastle 1.68 · Nott'm Forest 1.19
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
42.5% to 52.6%
The Newcastle home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
10 vs 16
Current mean projected league positions for Newcastle and Nott'm Forest.
Matchweek 18
Wednesday, 30 December 2026, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
+0.18 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.005 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.119 goal-rate signal
Recent results
-0.015 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Newcastle vs Nott'm Forest prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Newcastle United vs Nottingham Forest?
Newcastle United win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 47.9%. The draw is 25.9%.
What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Nottingham Forest?
The most likely exact score is Newcastle United 1-1 Nottingham Forest, with an estimated probability of 12.3%.
Will both teams score in Newcastle United vs Nottingham Forest?
The model gives both teams to score a 57.4% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 54.6% probability.
When is Newcastle United vs Nottingham Forest?
Newcastle United vs Nottingham Forest is scheduled for Wednesday, 30 December 2026, time provisional.
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