Newcastle United vs Leeds United prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Newcastle United win the strongest outcome at 50.5%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
Newcastle UnitedNEW54.1 projected points
Leeds UnitedLEE51.8 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Newcastle vs Leeds scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
11.9%
9.7%
8.6%
8.4%
6.4%
Newcastle 1.76 · Leeds 1.16
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
45.1% to 55.3%
The Newcastle home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
9 vs 10
Current mean projected league positions for Newcastle and Leeds.
Matchweek 30
Saturday, 20 March 2027, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
+0.33 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.028 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.137 goal-rate signal
Recent results
-0.054 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Newcastle vs Leeds prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Newcastle United vs Leeds United?
Newcastle United win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 50.5%. The draw is 25.3%.
What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Leeds United?
The most likely exact score is Newcastle United 1-1 Leeds United, with an estimated probability of 11.9%.
Will both teams score in Newcastle United vs Leeds United?
The model gives both teams to score a 57.7% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 55.8% probability.
When is Newcastle United vs Leeds United?
Newcastle United vs Leeds United is scheduled for Saturday, 20 March 2027, time provisional.