Newcastle United vs Everton prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Newcastle United win the strongest outcome at 50.4%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
Newcastle UnitedNEW54.1 projected points
EvertonEVE50.2 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Newcastle vs Everton scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
12.1%
9.7%
8.9%
8.5%
6.6%
Newcastle 1.73 · Everton 1.14
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
42.6% to 57.3%
The Newcastle home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
9 vs 12
Current mean projected league positions for Newcastle and Everton.
Matchweek 9
Monday, 2 November 2026 at 20:00 UK time
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
+0.26 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.002 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.078 goal-rate signal
Recent results
-0.062 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Newcastle vs Everton prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Newcastle United vs Everton?
Newcastle United win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 50.4%. The draw is 25.5%.
What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Everton?
The most likely exact score is Newcastle United 1-1 Everton, with an estimated probability of 12.1%.
Will both teams score in Newcastle United vs Everton?
The model gives both teams to score a 56.8% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 54.7% probability.
When is Newcastle United vs Everton?
Newcastle United vs Everton is scheduled for Monday, 2 November 2026 at 20:00 UK time.