Newcastle United vs Chelsea prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Newcastle United win the strongest outcome at 39.1%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
Newcastle UnitedNEW54.1 projected points
ChelseaCHE64.1 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Newcastle vs Chelsea scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
11.9%
8.6%
8.1%
6.5%
6.4%
Newcastle 1.58 · Chelsea 1.48
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
31.9% to 49.7%
The Newcastle home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
9 vs 3
Current mean projected league positions for Newcastle and Chelsea.
Matchweek 25
Wednesday, 10 February 2027, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.13 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
+0.013 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.093 goal-rate signal
Recent results
-0.034 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Newcastle vs Chelsea prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Newcastle United vs Chelsea?
Newcastle United win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 39.1%. The draw is 25.8%.
What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Chelsea?
The most likely exact score is Newcastle United 1-1 Chelsea, with an estimated probability of 11.9%.
Will both teams score in Newcastle United vs Chelsea?
The model gives both teams to score a 62.1% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 58.9% probability.
When is Newcastle United vs Chelsea?
Newcastle United vs Chelsea is scheduled for Wednesday, 10 February 2027, time provisional.