Newcastle United vs Arsenal prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Arsenal win the strongest outcome at 46.1%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
Newcastle UnitedNEW54.1 projected points
ArsenalARS73.6 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Newcastle vs Arsenal scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
12.1%
9.4%
7.9%
7.4%
7.1%
Newcastle 1.27 · Arsenal 1.68
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
23.2% to 35.2%
The Newcastle home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
9 vs 1
Current mean projected league positions for Newcastle and Arsenal.
Matchweek 11
Saturday, 21 November 2026, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.37 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
+0.042 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.218 goal-rate signal
Recent results
-0.037 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Newcastle vs Arsenal prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Newcastle United vs Arsenal?
Arsenal win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 46.1%. The draw is 25.8%.
What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Arsenal?
The most likely exact score is Newcastle United 1-1 Arsenal, with an estimated probability of 12.1%.
Will both teams score in Newcastle United vs Arsenal?
The model gives both teams to score a 59.4% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 56.5% probability.
When is Newcastle United vs Arsenal?
Newcastle United vs Arsenal is scheduled for Saturday, 21 November 2026, time provisional.