Manchester United vs Aston Villa prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Manchester United win the strongest outcome at 50.4%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
Manchester UnitedMUN58.6 projected points
Aston VillaAVL55 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Man Utd vs Aston Villa scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
11.8%
9.7%
8.3%
8.2%
6.5%
Man Utd 1.78 · Aston Villa 1.18
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
40.2% to 59.9%
The Man Utd home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
5 vs 8
Current mean projected league positions for Man Utd and Aston Villa.
Matchweek 10
Saturday, 7 November 2026, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
+0.03 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.007 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
+0.08 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.022 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Man Utd vs Aston Villa prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Manchester United vs Aston Villa?
Manchester United win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 50.4%. The draw is 25.1%.
What is the predicted score for Manchester United vs Aston Villa?
The most likely exact score is Manchester United 1-1 Aston Villa, with an estimated probability of 11.8%.
Will both teams score in Manchester United vs Aston Villa?
The model gives both teams to score a 58.5% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 56.8% probability.
When is Manchester United vs Aston Villa?
Manchester United vs Aston Villa is scheduled for Saturday, 7 November 2026, time provisional.