Liverpool vs Manchester United prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Liverpool win the strongest outcome at 48.8%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
LiverpoolLIV59.9 projected points
Manchester UnitedMUN58.6 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Liverpool vs Man Utd scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
11.5%
9.5%
7.5%
7.5%
6.8%
Liverpool 1.79 · Man Utd 1.27
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
41.3% to 53.8%
The Liverpool home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
4 vs 5
Current mean projected league positions for Liverpool and Man Utd.
Matchweek 11
Saturday, 21 November 2026, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
+0.14 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.048 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.111 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.054 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Liverpool vs Man Utd prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Liverpool vs Manchester United?
Liverpool win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 48.8%. The draw is 24.9%.
What is the predicted score for Liverpool vs Manchester United?
The most likely exact score is Liverpool 1-1 Manchester United, with an estimated probability of 11.5%.
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Manchester United?
The model gives both teams to score a 60.7% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 59.0% probability.
When is Liverpool vs Manchester United?
Liverpool vs Manchester United is scheduled for Saturday, 21 November 2026, time provisional.