Liverpool vs Arsenal prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Arsenal win the strongest outcome at 38.9%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
LiverpoolLIV59.9 projected points
ArsenalARS73.6 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Liverpool vs Arsenal scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
12.2%
8.7%
8.1%
7.0%
6.5%
Liverpool 1.43 · Arsenal 1.53
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
29.8% to 39.7%
The Liverpool home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
4 vs 1
Current mean projected league positions for Liverpool and Arsenal.
Matchweek 9
Sunday, 1 November 2026 at 16:30 UK time
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.16 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
+0.024 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.166 goal-rate signal
Recent results
-0.065 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Liverpool vs Arsenal prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Liverpool vs Arsenal?
Arsenal win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 38.9%. The draw is 26.3%.
What is the predicted score for Liverpool vs Arsenal?
The most likely exact score is Liverpool 1-1 Arsenal, with an estimated probability of 12.2%.
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Arsenal?
The model gives both teams to score a 60.5% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 56.8% probability.
When is Liverpool vs Arsenal?
Liverpool vs Arsenal is scheduled for Sunday, 1 November 2026 at 16:30 UK time.