Leeds United vs Newcastle United prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Leeds United win the strongest outcome at 42.5%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
Leeds UnitedLEE51.8 projected points
Newcastle UnitedNEW54.1 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Leeds vs Newcastle scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
12.6%
9.1%
8.0%
7.5%
7.0%
Leeds 1.56 · Newcastle 1.30
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
34.8% to 47.5%
The Leeds home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
10 vs 9
Current mean projected league positions for Leeds and Newcastle.
Matchweek 4
Monday, 14 September 2026 at 20:00 UK time
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.33 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
+0.028 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
+0.137 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.054 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Leeds vs Newcastle prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Leeds United vs Newcastle United?
Leeds United win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 42.5%. The draw is 26.6%.
What is the predicted score for Leeds United vs Newcastle United?
The most likely exact score is Leeds United 1-1 Newcastle United, with an estimated probability of 12.6%.
Will both teams score in Leeds United vs Newcastle United?
The model gives both teams to score a 58.3% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 54.3% probability.
When is Leeds United vs Newcastle United?
Leeds United vs Newcastle United is scheduled for Monday, 14 September 2026 at 20:00 UK time.