Leeds United vs Aston Villa prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Leeds United win the strongest outcome at 40.5%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
Leeds UnitedLEE51.8 projected points
Aston VillaAVL55 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Leeds vs Aston Villa scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
12.8%
8.8%
8.1%
7.8%
7.0%
Leeds 1.49 · Aston Villa 1.31
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
34.3% to 49.2%
The Leeds home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
10 vs 8
Current mean projected league positions for Leeds and Aston Villa.
Matchweek 26
Saturday, 20 February 2027, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.37 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.008 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
+0.053 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.158 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Leeds vs Aston Villa prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Leeds United vs Aston Villa?
Leeds United win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 40.5%. The draw is 27.0%.
What is the predicted score for Leeds United vs Aston Villa?
The most likely exact score is Leeds United 1-1 Aston Villa, with an estimated probability of 12.8%.
Will both teams score in Leeds United vs Aston Villa?
The model gives both teams to score a 57.6% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 53.2% probability.
When is Leeds United vs Aston Villa?
Leeds United vs Aston Villa is scheduled for Saturday, 20 February 2027, time provisional.