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PREMIER LEAGUE · MATCHWEEK 8 · FRIDAY, 23 OCTOBER 2026

Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest prediction

HORIZON 6.2 makes Ipswich Town win the strongest outcome at 43.2%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.

Ipswich TownIPS47.6 projected points
MOST LIKELY SCORE1-112.8% exact-score probability
Nottingham ForestNFO45.8 projected points
Ipswich win43.2%
Draw26.9%
Nott'm Forest win29.9%
Both teams score57.1%
Over 2.5 goals52.9%
EXACT-SCORE MODEL

Most likely Ipswich vs Nott'm Forest scores

The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.

#11-1

12.8%

#22-1

9.1%

#31-0

8.5%

#41-2

7.4%

#52-0

7.3%

EXPECTED GOALS

Ipswich 1.54 · Nott'm Forest 1.25

The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.

UNCERTAINTY

34.6% to 50.3%

The Ipswich home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.

SEASON CONTEXT

13 vs 16

Current mean projected league positions for Ipswich and Nott'm Forest.

KICK-OFF

Matchweek 8

Friday, 23 October 2026 at 20:00 UK time

MODEL DRIVERS

What shapes this prediction

away

Latent strength

-0.35 home differential

home

Venue

24% league scoring uplift

neutral

Sustainable form

-0.001 xG-trend differential

home

Squad inputs

+0.148 goal-rate signal

home

Recent results

+0.096 EWMA state differential

MATCH FAQ

Ipswich vs Nott'm Forest prediction questions

Who is predicted to win Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest?

Ipswich Town win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 43.2%. The draw is 26.9%.

What is the predicted score for Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest?

The most likely exact score is Ipswich Town 1-1 Nottingham Forest, with an estimated probability of 12.8%.

Will both teams score in Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest?

The model gives both teams to score a 57.1% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 52.9% probability.

When is Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest?

Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest is scheduled for Friday, 23 October 2026 at 20:00 UK time.

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