Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Ipswich Town win the strongest outcome at 37.3%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
Ipswich TownIPS46.9 projected points
Aston VillaAVL55 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Ipswich vs Aston Villa scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
12.1%
8.4%
8.4%
6.6%
6.6%
Ipswich 1.50 · Aston Villa 1.49
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
28.8% to 48.3%
The Ipswich home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
16 vs 8
Current mean projected league positions for Ipswich and Aston Villa.
Matchweek 12
Saturday, 28 November 2026, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.57 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.032 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
+0.173 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.12 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Ipswich vs Aston Villa prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa?
Ipswich Town win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 37.3%. The draw is 26.1%.
What is the predicted score for Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa?
The most likely exact score is Ipswich Town 1-1 Aston Villa, with an estimated probability of 12.1%.
Will both teams score in Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa?
The model gives both teams to score a 61.1% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 57.5% probability.
When is Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa?
Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa is scheduled for Saturday, 28 November 2026, time provisional.