Everton vs Newcastle United prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Everton win the strongest outcome at 44.0%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
EvertonEVE50 projected points
Newcastle UnitedNEW50.5 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Everton vs Newcastle scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
12.5%
9.2%
8.2%
7.3%
7.3%
Everton 1.59 · Newcastle 1.26
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
36.9% to 48.4%
The Everton home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
11 vs 10
Current mean projected league positions for Everton and Newcastle.
Matchweek 24
Saturday, 6 February 2027, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.26 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
+0.002 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
+0.072 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.129 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Everton vs Newcastle prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Everton vs Newcastle United?
Everton win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 44.0%. The draw is 26.5%.
What is the predicted score for Everton vs Newcastle United?
The most likely exact score is Everton 1-1 Newcastle United, with an estimated probability of 12.5%.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Newcastle United?
The model gives both teams to score a 58.0% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 54.3% probability.
When is Everton vs Newcastle United?
Everton vs Newcastle United is scheduled for Saturday, 6 February 2027, time provisional.
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