Everton vs Newcastle United prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Everton win the strongest outcome at 41.8%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
EvertonEVE50.2 projected points
Newcastle UnitedNEW54.1 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Everton vs Newcastle scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
12.8%
9.0%
8.3%
7.6%
7.1%
Everton 1.51 · Newcastle 1.28
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
33.0% to 46.9%
The Everton home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
12 vs 9
Current mean projected league positions for Everton and Newcastle.
Matchweek 24
Saturday, 6 February 2027, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.26 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
+0.002 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
+0.078 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.062 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Everton vs Newcastle prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Everton vs Newcastle United?
Everton win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 41.8%. The draw is 27.0%.
What is the predicted score for Everton vs Newcastle United?
The most likely exact score is Everton 1-1 Newcastle United, with an estimated probability of 12.8%.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Newcastle United?
The model gives both teams to score a 57.2% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 52.8% probability.
When is Everton vs Newcastle United?
Everton vs Newcastle United is scheduled for Saturday, 6 February 2027, time provisional.