Everton vs Manchester United prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Manchester United win the strongest outcome at 36.2%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
EvertonEVE50.2 projected points
Manchester UnitedMUN58.6 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Everton vs Man Utd scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
13.4%
8.4%
8.3%
8.3%
8.2%
Everton 1.32 · Man Utd 1.33
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
27.2% to 43.3%
The Everton home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
12 vs 5
Current mean projected league positions for Everton and Man Utd.
Matchweek 3
Sunday, 6 September 2026 at 14:00 UK time
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.33 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.027 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.085 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.145 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Everton vs Man Utd prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Everton vs Manchester United?
Manchester United win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 36.2%. The draw is 28.1%.
What is the predicted score for Everton vs Manchester United?
The most likely exact score is Everton 1-1 Manchester United, with an estimated probability of 13.4%.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Manchester United?
The model gives both teams to score a 54.9% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 49.4% probability.
When is Everton vs Manchester United?
Everton vs Manchester United is scheduled for Sunday, 6 September 2026 at 14:00 UK time.