Everton vs Liverpool prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Liverpool win the strongest outcome at 38.0%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
EvertonEVE50.2 projected points
LiverpoolLIV59.9 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Everton vs Liverpool scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
12.8%
8.6%
8.2%
7.7%
7.3%
Everton 1.38 · Liverpool 1.44
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
30.4% to 42.2%
The Everton home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
12 vs 4
Current mean projected league positions for Everton and Liverpool.
Matchweek 12
Saturday, 28 November 2026, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.47 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
+0.021 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
+0.026 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.091 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Everton vs Liverpool prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Everton vs Liverpool?
Liverpool win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 38.0%. The draw is 27.1%.
What is the predicted score for Everton vs Liverpool?
The most likely exact score is Everton 1-1 Liverpool, with an estimated probability of 12.8%.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Liverpool?
The model gives both teams to score a 58.0% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 53.5% probability.
When is Everton vs Liverpool?
Everton vs Liverpool is scheduled for Saturday, 28 November 2026, time provisional.