Everton vs Leeds United prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Everton win the strongest outcome at 44.0%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
EvertonEVE50.2 projected points
Leeds UnitedLEE51.8 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Everton vs Leeds scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
13.6%
10.6%
9.2%
9.0%
8.3%
Everton 1.43 · Leeds 1.08
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
34.9% to 50.6%
The Everton home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
12 vs 10
Current mean projected league positions for Everton and Leeds.
Matchweek 25
Wednesday, 10 February 2027, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
+0.07 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.026 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.059 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.009 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Everton vs Leeds prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Everton vs Leeds United?
Everton win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 44.0%. The draw is 28.5%.
What is the predicted score for Everton vs Leeds United?
The most likely exact score is Everton 1-1 Leeds United, with an estimated probability of 13.6%.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Leeds United?
The model gives both teams to score a 51.1% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 45.7% probability.
When is Everton vs Leeds United?
Everton vs Leeds United is scheduled for Wednesday, 10 February 2027, time provisional.