Everton vs Leeds United prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Everton win the strongest outcome at 43.6%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
EvertonEVE50 projected points
Leeds UnitedLEE50.9 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Everton vs Leeds scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
13.6%
10.5%
9.1%
8.9%
8.2%
Everton 1.42 · Leeds 1.09
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
36.3% to 48.6%
The Everton home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
11 vs 9
Current mean projected league positions for Everton and Leeds.
Matchweek 25
Wednesday, 10 February 2027, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
+0.07 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.026 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.051 goal-rate signal
Recent results
-0.011 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Everton vs Leeds prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Everton vs Leeds United?
Everton win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 43.6%. The draw is 28.5%.
What is the predicted score for Everton vs Leeds United?
The most likely exact score is Everton 1-1 Leeds United, with an estimated probability of 13.6%.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Leeds United?
The model gives both teams to score a 51.4% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 45.9% probability.
When is Everton vs Leeds United?
Everton vs Leeds United is scheduled for Wednesday, 10 February 2027, time provisional.
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