Everton vs Brentford prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Everton win the strongest outcome at 39.8%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
EvertonEVE50.2 projected points
BrentfordBRE57.1 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Everton vs Brentford scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
13.2%
8.7%
8.7%
7.8%
7.7%
Everton 1.43 · Brentford 1.27
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
33.9% to 42.5%
The Everton home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
12 vs 6
Current mean projected league positions for Everton and Brentford.
Matchweek 22
Saturday, 23 January 2027, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.12 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
+0.025 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.039 goal-rate signal
Recent results
-0.034 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Everton vs Brentford prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Everton vs Brentford?
Everton win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 39.8%. The draw is 27.7%.
What is the predicted score for Everton vs Brentford?
The most likely exact score is Everton 1-1 Brentford, with an estimated probability of 13.2%.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Brentford?
The model gives both teams to score a 55.6% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 50.5% probability.
When is Everton vs Brentford?
Everton vs Brentford is scheduled for Saturday, 23 January 2027, time provisional.