Everton vs Aston Villa prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Everton win the strongest outcome at 39.5%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
EvertonEVE50.2 projected points
Aston VillaAVL55 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Everton vs Aston Villa scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
13.3%
8.7%
8.7%
7.9%
7.8%
Everton 1.41 · Aston Villa 1.26
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
32.7% to 47.1%
The Everton home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
12 vs 8
Current mean projected league positions for Everton and Aston Villa.
Matchweek 20
Wednesday, 6 January 2027, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.3 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.034 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.006 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.167 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Everton vs Aston Villa prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Everton vs Aston Villa?
Everton win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 39.5%. The draw is 27.8%.
What is the predicted score for Everton vs Aston Villa?
The most likely exact score is Everton 1-1 Aston Villa, with an estimated probability of 13.3%.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Aston Villa?
The model gives both teams to score a 55.2% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 50.0% probability.
When is Everton vs Aston Villa?
Everton vs Aston Villa is scheduled for Wednesday, 6 January 2027, time provisional.