Everton vs Arsenal prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Arsenal win the strongest outcome at 49.0%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
EvertonEVE50.2 projected points
ArsenalARS73.6 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Everton vs Arsenal scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
12.8%
10.3%
9.5%
9.0%
8.0%
Everton 1.06 · Arsenal 1.60
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
20.0% to 30.4%
The Everton home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
12 vs 1
Current mean projected league positions for Everton and Arsenal.
Matchweek 37
Sunday, 23 May 2027, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.63 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
+0.044 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.14 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.025 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Everton vs Arsenal prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Everton vs Arsenal?
Arsenal win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 49.0%. The draw is 26.9%.
What is the predicted score for Everton vs Arsenal?
The most likely exact score is Everton 1-1 Arsenal, with an estimated probability of 12.8%.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Arsenal?
The model gives both teams to score a 53.0% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 49.6% probability.
When is Everton vs Arsenal?
Everton vs Arsenal is scheduled for Sunday, 23 May 2027, time provisional.