Everton vs AFC Bournemouth prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Everton win the strongest outcome at 41.5%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
EvertonEVE50.2 projected points
AFC BournemouthBOU51.4 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Everton vs Bournemouth scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
13.2%
8.9%
8.9%
7.8%
7.5%
Everton 1.46 · Bournemouth 1.23
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
35.0% to 48.9%
The Everton home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
12 vs 11
Current mean projected league positions for Everton and Bournemouth.
Matchweek 32
Saturday, 17 April 2027, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.19 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
+0.009 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.016 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.084 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Everton vs Bournemouth prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Everton vs AFC Bournemouth?
Everton win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 41.5%. The draw is 27.6%.
What is the predicted score for Everton vs AFC Bournemouth?
The most likely exact score is Everton 1-1 AFC Bournemouth, with an estimated probability of 13.2%.
Will both teams score in Everton vs AFC Bournemouth?
The model gives both teams to score a 55.3% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 50.4% probability.
When is Everton vs AFC Bournemouth?
Everton vs AFC Bournemouth is scheduled for Saturday, 17 April 2027, time provisional.