Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Newcastle United win the strongest outcome at 38.1%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
Crystal PalaceCRY40.4 projected points
Newcastle UnitedNEW54.1 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Crystal Palace vs Newcastle scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
12.1%
8.5%
8.3%
6.7%
6.4%
Crystal Palace 1.48 · Newcastle 1.53
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
30.5% to 43.0%
The Crystal Palace home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
18 vs 9
Current mean projected league positions for Crystal Palace and Newcastle.
Matchweek 8
Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 14:00 UK time
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.22 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.027 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
+0.039 goal-rate signal
Recent results
-0.102 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United?
Newcastle United win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 38.1%. The draw is 26.0%.
What is the predicted score for Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United?
The most likely exact score is Crystal Palace 1-1 Newcastle United, with an estimated probability of 12.1%.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United?
The model gives both teams to score a 61.4% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 57.8% probability.
When is Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United?
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United is scheduled for Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 14:00 UK time.