Crystal Palace vs Chelsea prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Chelsea win the strongest outcome at 46.2%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
Crystal PalaceCRY40.4 projected points
ChelseaCHE64.1 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Crystal Palace vs Chelsea scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
12.0%
9.4%
7.8%
7.3%
7.1%
Crystal Palace 1.28 · Chelsea 1.69
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
23.8% to 35.8%
The Crystal Palace home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
18 vs 3
Current mean projected league positions for Crystal Palace and Chelsea.
Matchweek 20
Wednesday, 6 January 2027, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.35 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.014 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.054 goal-rate signal
Recent results
-0.136 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Crystal Palace vs Chelsea prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Crystal Palace vs Chelsea?
Chelsea win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 46.2%. The draw is 25.7%.
What is the predicted score for Crystal Palace vs Chelsea?
The most likely exact score is Crystal Palace 1-1 Chelsea, with an estimated probability of 12.0%.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Chelsea?
The model gives both teams to score a 59.8% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 57.1% probability.
When is Crystal Palace vs Chelsea?
Crystal Palace vs Chelsea is scheduled for Wednesday, 6 January 2027, time provisional.