Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Aston Villa win the strongest outcome at 39.9%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
Crystal PalaceCRY40.4 projected points
Aston VillaAVL55 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
12.2%
8.8%
8.0%
7.1%
6.4%
Crystal Palace 1.42 · Aston Villa 1.55
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
27.4% to 39.1%
The Crystal Palace home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
18 vs 8
Current mean projected league positions for Crystal Palace and Aston Villa.
Matchweek 34
Saturday, 1 May 2027, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.26 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.063 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.045 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.003 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa?
Aston Villa win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 39.9%. The draw is 26.2%.
What is the predicted score for Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa?
The most likely exact score is Crystal Palace 1-1 Aston Villa, with an estimated probability of 12.2%.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa?
The model gives both teams to score a 60.6% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 56.9% probability.
When is Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa?
Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa is scheduled for Saturday, 1 May 2027, time provisional.