Chelsea vs Everton prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Chelsea win the strongest outcome at 57.5%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
ChelseaCHE64.1 projected points
EvertonEVE50.2 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Chelsea vs Everton scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
11.3%
9.9%
9.8%
9.5%
6.3%
Chelsea 1.91 · Everton 1.01
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
51.7% to 65.9%
The Chelsea home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
3 vs 12
Current mean projected league positions for Chelsea and Everton.
Matchweek 36
Saturday, 15 May 2027, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
+0.39 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.016 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
+0.015 goal-rate signal
Recent results
-0.029 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Chelsea vs Everton prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Chelsea vs Everton?
Chelsea win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 57.5%. The draw is 23.7%.
What is the predicted score for Chelsea vs Everton?
The most likely exact score is Chelsea 1-1 Everton, with an estimated probability of 11.3%.
Will both teams score in Chelsea vs Everton?
The model gives both teams to score a 55.0% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 55.8% probability.
When is Chelsea vs Everton?
Chelsea vs Everton is scheduled for Saturday, 15 May 2027, time provisional.