Chelsea vs Arsenal prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Arsenal win the strongest outcome at 38.7%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
ChelseaCHE64.1 projected points
ArsenalARS73.6 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Chelsea vs Arsenal scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
12.5%
8.6%
8.1%
7.4%
6.9%
Chelsea 1.40 · Arsenal 1.49
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
28.9% to 42.0%
The Chelsea home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
3 vs 1
Current mean projected league positions for Chelsea and Arsenal.
Matchweek 29
Saturday, 13 March 2027, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.24 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
+0.029 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.125 goal-rate signal
Recent results
-0.003 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Chelsea vs Arsenal prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Chelsea vs Arsenal?
Arsenal win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 38.7%. The draw is 26.7%.
What is the predicted score for Chelsea vs Arsenal?
The most likely exact score is Chelsea 1-1 Arsenal, with an estimated probability of 12.5%.
Will both teams score in Chelsea vs Arsenal?
The model gives both teams to score a 59.3% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 55.1% probability.
When is Chelsea vs Arsenal?
Chelsea vs Arsenal is scheduled for Saturday, 13 March 2027, time provisional.