Aston Villa vs Sunderland prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Aston Villa win the strongest outcome at 63.9%. The most likely score is 2-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
Aston VillaAVL52.5 projected points
SunderlandSUN37.1 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Aston Villa vs Sunderland scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
9.9%
9.8%
9.6%
8.1%
7.3%
Aston Villa 2.21 · Sunderland 1.01
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
58.1% to 69.2%
The Aston Villa home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
8 vs 20
Current mean projected league positions for Aston Villa and Sunderland.
Matchweek 11
Saturday, 21 November 2026, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
+0.49 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
+0.016 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.045 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.03 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Aston Villa vs Sunderland prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
Aston Villa win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 63.9%. The draw is 20.8%.
What is the predicted score for Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
The most likely exact score is Aston Villa 2-1 Sunderland, with an estimated probability of 9.9%.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
The model gives both teams to score a 57.2% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 62.3% probability.
When is Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
Aston Villa vs Sunderland is scheduled for Saturday, 21 November 2026, time provisional.
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