Aston Villa vs Liverpool prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Aston Villa win the strongest outcome at 41.6%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
Aston VillaAVL55 projected points
LiverpoolLIV59.9 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Aston Villa vs Liverpool scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
11.9%
8.9%
7.8%
6.9%
6.3%
Aston Villa 1.62 · Liverpool 1.41
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
36.8% to 48.8%
The Aston Villa home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
8 vs 4
Current mean projected league positions for Aston Villa and Liverpool.
Matchweek 18
Wednesday, 30 December 2026, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.17 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
+0.055 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
+0.031 goal-rate signal
Recent results
-0.076 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Aston Villa vs Liverpool prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Aston Villa vs Liverpool?
Aston Villa win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 41.6%. The draw is 25.8%.
What is the predicted score for Aston Villa vs Liverpool?
The most likely exact score is Aston Villa 1-1 Liverpool, with an estimated probability of 11.9%.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Liverpool?
The model gives both teams to score a 61.6% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 58.4% probability.
When is Aston Villa vs Liverpool?
Aston Villa vs Liverpool is scheduled for Wednesday, 30 December 2026, time provisional.