Aston Villa vs Arsenal prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Arsenal win the strongest outcome at 44.3%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
Aston VillaAVL55 projected points
ArsenalARS73.6 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Aston Villa vs Arsenal scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
12.4%
9.2%
8.1%
7.3%
7.2%
Aston Villa 1.27 · Arsenal 1.61
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
24.5% to 35.4%
The Aston Villa home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
8 vs 1
Current mean projected league positions for Aston Villa and Arsenal.
Matchweek 2
Monday, 31 August 2026 at 20:00 UK time
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.33 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
+0.078 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.134 goal-rate signal
Recent results
-0.142 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Aston Villa vs Arsenal prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Aston Villa vs Arsenal?
Arsenal win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 44.3%. The draw is 26.3%.
What is the predicted score for Aston Villa vs Arsenal?
The most likely exact score is Aston Villa 1-1 Arsenal, with an estimated probability of 12.4%.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Arsenal?
The model gives both teams to score a 58.5% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 55.0% probability.
When is Aston Villa vs Arsenal?
Aston Villa vs Arsenal is scheduled for Monday, 31 August 2026 at 20:00 UK time.