Aston Villa vs AFC Bournemouth prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Aston Villa win the strongest outcome at 48.5%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
Aston VillaAVL55 projected points
AFC BournemouthBOU51.4 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Aston Villa vs Bournemouth scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
12.0%
9.6%
8.4%
7.9%
6.7%
Aston Villa 1.72 · Bournemouth 1.20
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
42.1% to 58.1%
The Aston Villa home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
8 vs 11
Current mean projected league positions for Aston Villa and Bournemouth.
Matchweek 25
Wednesday, 10 February 2027, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
+0.11 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
+0.043 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.011 goal-rate signal
Recent results
-0.083 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Aston Villa vs Bournemouth prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Aston Villa vs AFC Bournemouth?
Aston Villa win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 48.5%. The draw is 25.6%.
What is the predicted score for Aston Villa vs AFC Bournemouth?
The most likely exact score is Aston Villa 1-1 AFC Bournemouth, with an estimated probability of 12.0%.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs AFC Bournemouth?
The model gives both teams to score a 58.3% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 55.9% probability.
When is Aston Villa vs AFC Bournemouth?
Aston Villa vs AFC Bournemouth is scheduled for Wednesday, 10 February 2027, time provisional.