Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Arsenal win the strongest outcome at 71.3%. The most likely score is 2-0, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
ArsenalARS73.6 projected points
Tottenham HotspurTOT49.8 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Arsenal vs Tottenham scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
9.6%
9.3%
8.3%
8.0%
7.8%
Arsenal 2.58 · Tottenham 0.97
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
62.8% to 73.6%
The Arsenal home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
1 vs 14
Current mean projected league positions for Arsenal and Tottenham.
Matchweek 34
Saturday, 1 May 2027, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
+0.55 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.06 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
+0.068 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.127 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Arsenal vs Tottenham prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur?
Arsenal win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 71.3%. The draw is 17.2%.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur?
The most likely exact score is Arsenal 2-0 Tottenham Hotspur, with an estimated probability of 9.6%.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur?
The model gives both teams to score a 57.9% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 68.7% probability.
When is Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur?
Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur is scheduled for Saturday, 1 May 2027, time provisional.