Arsenal vs Sunderland prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Arsenal win the strongest outcome at 77.6%. The most likely score is 2-0, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
ArsenalARS73.6 projected points
SunderlandSUN38.8 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Arsenal vs Sunderland scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
11.9%
10.6%
8.8%
8.4%
7.8%
Arsenal 2.67 · Sunderland 0.74
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
71.6% to 81.7%
The Arsenal home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
1 vs 19
Current mean projected league positions for Arsenal and Sunderland.
Matchweek 30
Saturday, 20 March 2027, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
+0.82 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.062 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
+0.186 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.046 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Arsenal vs Sunderland prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Arsenal vs Sunderland?
Arsenal win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 77.6%. The draw is 15.0%.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Sunderland?
The most likely exact score is Arsenal 2-0 Sunderland, with an estimated probability of 11.9%.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Sunderland?
The model gives both teams to score a 49.1% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 65.9% probability.
When is Arsenal vs Sunderland?
Arsenal vs Sunderland is scheduled for Saturday, 20 March 2027, time provisional.