Arsenal vs Newcastle United prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Arsenal win the strongest outcome at 66.3%. The most likely score is 2-0, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
ArsenalARS73.6 projected points
Newcastle UnitedNEW54.1 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Arsenal vs Newcastle scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
10.5%
9.8%
9.4%
8.6%
7.9%
Arsenal 2.25 · Newcastle 0.94
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
55.0% to 71.2%
The Arsenal home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
1 vs 9
Current mean projected league positions for Arsenal and Newcastle.
Matchweek 22
Saturday, 23 January 2027, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
+0.37 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.042 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
+0.218 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.037 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Arsenal vs Newcastle prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Arsenal vs Newcastle United?
Arsenal win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 66.3%. The draw is 20.1%.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Newcastle United?
The most likely exact score is Arsenal 2-0 Newcastle United, with an estimated probability of 10.5%.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Newcastle United?
The model gives both teams to score a 55.1% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 61.7% probability.
When is Arsenal vs Newcastle United?
Arsenal vs Newcastle United is scheduled for Saturday, 23 January 2027, time provisional.