Arsenal vs Manchester City prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Arsenal win the strongest outcome at 56.6%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
ArsenalARS73.6 projected points
Manchester CityMCI69.1 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Arsenal vs Man City scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
10.6%
9.9%
8.6%
7.8%
6.6%
Arsenal 2.01 · Man City 1.14
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
47.9% to 60.8%
The Arsenal home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
1 vs 2
Current mean projected league positions for Arsenal and Man City.
Matchweek 12
Saturday, 28 November 2026, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
+0.04 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.04 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
+0.307 goal-rate signal
Recent results
-0.037 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Arsenal vs Man City prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Arsenal vs Manchester City?
Arsenal win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 56.6%. The draw is 23.0%.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Manchester City?
The most likely exact score is Arsenal 1-1 Manchester City, with an estimated probability of 10.6%.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Manchester City?
The model gives both teams to score a 59.8% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 61.0% probability.
When is Arsenal vs Manchester City?
Arsenal vs Manchester City is scheduled for Saturday, 28 November 2026, time provisional.