Arsenal vs Liverpool prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Arsenal win the strongest outcome at 59.5%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
ArsenalARS73.6 projected points
LiverpoolLIV59.9 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Arsenal vs Liverpool scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
10.5%
9.9%
9.4%
8.4%
6.8%
Arsenal 2.05 · Liverpool 1.06
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
52.3% to 66.3%
The Arsenal home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
1 vs 4
Current mean projected league positions for Arsenal and Liverpool.
Matchweek 24
Saturday, 6 February 2027, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
+0.16 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.024 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
+0.166 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.065 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Arsenal vs Liverpool prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Arsenal vs Liverpool?
Arsenal win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 59.5%. The draw is 22.4%.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Liverpool?
The most likely exact score is Arsenal 1-1 Liverpool, with an estimated probability of 10.5%.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Liverpool?
The model gives both teams to score a 57.6% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 60.0% probability.
When is Arsenal vs Liverpool?
Arsenal vs Liverpool is scheduled for Saturday, 6 February 2027, time provisional.