Arsenal vs Everton prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Arsenal win the strongest outcome at 67.7%. The most likely score is 2-0, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
ArsenalARS73.6 projected points
EvertonEVE50.2 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Arsenal vs Everton scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
12.2%
10.6%
9.7%
9.7%
8.7%
Arsenal 2.15 · Everton 0.79
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
60.0% to 73.8%
The Arsenal home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
1 vs 12
Current mean projected league positions for Arsenal and Everton.
Matchweek 8
Saturday, 24 October 2026 at 15:00 UK time
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
+0.63 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.044 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
+0.14 goal-rate signal
Recent results
-0.025 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Arsenal vs Everton prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Arsenal vs Everton?
Arsenal win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 67.7%. The draw is 20.4%.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Everton?
The most likely exact score is Arsenal 2-0 Everton, with an estimated probability of 12.2%.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Everton?
The model gives both teams to score a 49.1% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 56.3% probability.
When is Arsenal vs Everton?
Arsenal vs Everton is scheduled for Saturday, 24 October 2026 at 15:00 UK time.