Arsenal vs Everton prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Arsenal win the strongest outcome at 65.0%. The most likely score is 2-0, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
ArsenalARS73.3 projected points
EvertonEVE50 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Arsenal vs Everton scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
11.9%
10.8%
10.3%
9.8%
8.1%
Arsenal 2.05 · Everton 0.82
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
59.0% to 70.1%
The Arsenal home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
2 vs 11
Current mean projected league positions for Arsenal and Everton.
Matchweek 8
Saturday, 24 October 2026 at 15:00 UK time
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
+0.63 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.044 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
+0.109 goal-rate signal
Recent results
-0.079 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Arsenal vs Everton prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Arsenal vs Everton?
Arsenal win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 65.0%. The draw is 21.6%.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Everton?
The most likely exact score is Arsenal 2-0 Everton, with an estimated probability of 11.9%.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Everton?
The model gives both teams to score a 49.7% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 54.7% probability.
When is Arsenal vs Everton?
Arsenal vs Everton is scheduled for Saturday, 24 October 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
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